Ryan Bookstein

Legislative-executive relations are generally portrayed as partisan and combative. The conventional wisdom is that Senate confirmation votes follow party lines, but the reality is different. Based on an original dataset of nearly 500 presidential nominations to executive agencies from 2017–2024, we find that the vote follows the party line only 12% of the time, and the majority of the time, ten or more senators defect from their party’s position. We examine the factors that explain the extent of party defection, focusing on the role of electoral timing, the position to which the individual is nominated, and the nominees themselves. We find that party defection is more likely when nominees are not seen as being ideological or partisan, and when the position is of higher status or in an agency perceived as less ideological. These findings reveal overlooked bipartisan dynamics due to the expectation that all politics is partisan.